Final weekend, Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned self-styled cow ‘protectors’ as “anti-socials by night time and cow saviours by day”. A day later Modi informed them, “Shoot me, not Dalits.”

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), dad or mum of the BJP and dozens of Hindu revanchist outfits, has formally backed Modi towards ‘gau rakshaks’. However get together spokesman Manmohan Vaidya informed media that the Prime Minister mustn't have condemned cow ‘protectors’ in public.

Here's a elementary contradiction. Since 1966, when a mob of almost 10,000 tried to storm Parliament demanding a ban on cow slaughter, Sangh organizations made it a plank to set Hindu towards Muslim. However huge collateral harm has been taken by Dalits, outdoors the pale of the varna system. In accordance with Hindu pollution-purity norms, they're the one caste that handles animal carcasses, together with cattle.

Dalits are an more and more assertive political bloc: Mayawati, a Dalit herself, has been chief minister of India’s largest state (Uttar Pradesh) 4 instances, most just lately in 2012. The BJP desires Dalit votes, however the Sangh privileges cattle over scheduled castes (SCs).

Since October 2015, a media archive search exhibits there’s been a spike in assaults by cow vigilantes. Victims are overwhelmingly Dalit or Muslim. Of 18 cattle-related assaults reported between October and August, 16 have taken place in states the place the BJP is in energy.

Madhya Pradesh, with 4 reported assaults is the worst offender, adopted by Haryana and Punjab (three every), Gujarat and Rajasthan (two every), Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand (one every). In J&Okay and Punjab, the BJP guidelines with allies PDP and Akali Dal, respectively. Virtually solely, victims of those assaults have been Dalit or Muslim.

However every thing boiled over on July 11, in Una, Gujarat, the place 4 SC males had been stripped and flogged by cattle vigilantes. The perpetrators videotaped the flogging and it went viral, sparking huge protests by Dalits throughout India. Modi tried to manage the harm by sacking Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel on August 3; his public shows of anger got here on August 6 and seven. However cow-related assaults haven’t stopped. On Wednesday, August 10, three Dalits had been tied to a tree and thrashed in Godavari, Andhra Pradesh.

Munna Kumar Sharma, a frontrunner of the Hindu Mahasabha informed TOI just lately, “Gau rakshaks will proceed doing the great work. Modi will learn the way a lot his remarks will price him within the subsequent Lok Sabha elections.”

These elections are slated for 2019. However Modi’s current remarks of concern about Dalits are an try to chop losses earlier than meeting polls in Punjab and UP subsequent yr.

At 32% of the inhabitants, Punjab is residence to the very best SC proportion in India. In 13 of its 21 districts, the Dalit inhabitants is increased than the statewide common; 34 of its 117 meeting seats are reserved for SC candidates. Within the 2012 elections, Congress polled a bit of over 40% of complete votes; the Akalis, round 35% and the BJP 7%.

With solely two proportion factors separating the Congress and Akali-BJP, 2017 can be too near name, even when the Aam Aadmi Get together steps in as a powerful contender. In six districts, the SC vote can swing outcomes: these embody Shaheed Bhagat Singh Nagar, the place Dalits are 42.5% of the inhabitants, Muktsar Sahib (42.3%), Firozpur (42%), Jalandhar and Faridkot (39%) and Moga (36.5%).

Uttar Pradesh is an much more formidable problem. The ruling Samajwadi Get together is on the wane. The BJP desperately desires to seize India’s electorally most important state, which it final dominated 14 years in the past. Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Get together, which furthers the pursuits of Dalits and sometimes combines with higher caste and Muslim issues, is once more a formidable contender. Information of atrocities on Dalits — and Muslims — on the problem of cattle, has given wings to her marketing campaign.

Dalits are 21% of UP’s inhabitants. That is necessary, as a result of in a multi-cornered ballot struggle, a celebration can sweep with lower than 30% of complete votes. In 2012, for instance, SP gained 224 seats (of 403) with solely 29% votes.

In a number of districts, Dalits alone can swing it for Mayawati. These embody Sonbhadra, with a 42% Dalit inhabitants, Kaushambi (36%), Sitapur (32%), Unnao and Hardoi (31%), Rae Bareli (30%), Jhansi and Auraiya (28%). In 34 of UP’s 70 districts, the Dalit inhabitants is increased than their statewide common.

These numbers have compelled Modi’s hand-wringing. But, on Thursday, when Lok Sabha debated assaults on Dalits, the PM stayed away. In the meantime, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad promised to launch a cow agitation in Delhi on November 7, the fiftieth anniversary of the 1966 cattle motion. How the RSS manages that is its headache. The ultimate arbiter would be the voter.

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